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GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Barometer - September 2008

Early September rise in Consumer Confidence knocked back by financial market upheavals

The GfK NOP Index saw a second consecutive rise in confidence during the first half of September; however, following the late September financial market upheavals, GfK NOP ran an additional wave, which showed confidence knocked back to the August level.

• The regular Consumer Confidence interviewing was conducted over the weekends 5-7 and 12-14 September 2008. This is the data on which the EU Commission monthly figures are based.
• The additional wave was conducted over the weekend 19-21 September 2008. This wave was merged with the 5-7 September results, to give our own updated average for September showing the affect of financial market upheavals.

Rachael Joy in the Consumer Confidence team at GfK NOP commented, "In the first half of September, we saw a second small improvement in consumer confidence, although this is still at a level not seen since the 1990’s recession. The major purchase index in particular showed its first increase in twelve months (although it is still a massive 29 points lower than this time last year); possibly a reflection of the discount offers available on the high street as retailers try to attract consumers to buy.

"When we look at our additional wave, to see how the late September financial upheavals had affected this rise, the additional findings show that, while the rise in confidence has taken a blow, it is not enormous – merely taking us back to the August level. Indeed, confidence in the General Economic situation for the coming 12 months increased between the two waves – possibly due to the prompt support plans announced for the stricken banks. The figure showing the biggest hit is the ‘climate for major purchases’, which lost all the six points it had gained since the August level, as people hold back on big spending while they wait to see what the future holds.

"Looking at the overall trend, I’d say we’re seeing a tentative lift in UK consumer confidence, although we’re still at the levels not seen since the 1990s recession. The indication is that people are coming to terms with the thought of living through a depression. While they are still nervous of their personal financial situation and the economy in general, we could be seeing people beginning to acclimatise to the situation.”

UK Consumer Confidence Measures September 2008 -
EU Commission figures

The EU Commission are basing their September figures on the ‘regular’ survey fieldwork run over the first two weekends in September, which showed the Index Score of -32. These figures are as follows.

The overall index score this month has increased four points to -32, twenty-five points lower than this time last year. This increase has been caused by a rise across four of the five measures. The annual moving average has dropped to -22.

Personal Financial Situation

The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year has dropped by three points to a score of -19; this is twenty-three points lower than this time last year.

The forecast for personal finances over the next year has risen by one point to a score of -11. This is also twenty-three points lower than this time last year.

General Economic Situation

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last twelve months has risen by seven points with a score of –62; this remains a massive thirty-three points lower than this time last year.

Expectations for the general economic situation over the next twelve months have also increased by seven points to -40; twenty-one points lower than this time last year.

Climate for Major Purchases

The major purchases measure has increased by six points, from -38 to -32; this is twenty-nine points lower than this time last year. This is the first increase for this measure in twelve months.

Savings Index

The ‘now is a good time to save’ Index, which was only run over the first two weekends in September, showed a three point drop to +18, twenty points lower than this time last year.