GfK NOP Consumer Confidence - November 2009

Consumer Confidence takes a backward step

• The GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index dropped by four points this month to -17.
• Confidence in "general economy” over the last 12 months has reversed by six points to -59.
• The ‘major purchase Index’, has fallen seven points to -19.
  

Nick Moon, MD of GfK NOP Social Research comments, "Given that the Government’s best chance – indeed probably their only chance – of retaining power in next May’s general election is to contest it on the back of several months of economic improvement, this month’s Consumer Confidence figures will come as a real blow. After a fairly steady rise throughout 2009 the index is 20 percentage points above where it was at the start of the year, but this month is the first time the index has fallen for over a year.”

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – November 2009

The overall index score this month dropped back by 4 points and is now at a score of -17, still eighteen points better than this time last year. Four of the five measures this month experienced a marked downturn. However the annual moving average improved and is now -27.

Measure	Nov 09	Oct 09	Nov 08
Overall index score	-17	-13	-35
Personal Financial situation over last 12 months	-14	-12	-17
Personal Financial situation over next 12 months	+5	+6	-10
General Economic situation over last 12 months	-59	-53	-71
General Economic situation over next 12 months	+3	+3	-36
Climate for major purchases	-19	-12	-39

Personal Financial Situation

The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year has fallen by two points to a score of -14; this is three points higher than this time last year.

The forecast for personal finances over the next year dropped one point to a score of +5. This is fifteen points higher than November ’08.

General Economic Situation

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last twelve months has dropped by six points to –59; twelve points higher than this time last year.

An expectation for the general economic situation over the next twelve months has remained the same with a score of +3, and is thirty-nine points higher than November ’08.

Climate for Major Purchases

The major purchases measure has dropped by seven points to -19; twenty points higher than this time last year.

Savings Index

The ‘now is a good time to save’ Index, has dropped four points to -10, fourteen points lower than in November ’08.

About the GfK NOP Consumer Confidence survey

Any published material requires a reference to both GfK NOP and the European Commission e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK NOP on behalf of the European Commission’.

• The UK Consumer Confidence Survey from GfK NOP was conducted amongst a sample of 2000 individuals aged 16+ on behalf of the European Commission.
• Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
• Interviewing was carried out during 6–15 November 2009.
• The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
• Results for the Consumer Confidence Barometer are available on the last working day of each month at 00.01am. The next release is Friday 18 December 2009.
• This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 1996.

The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:

Personal Financial Situation (Q1/Q2)	This index is based on the following questions to consumers: How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’ Q2 ‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better –  a little better – stayed) the same –a little worse - a lot worse)
General Economic Situation (Q3/Q4)	This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better –  a little better – stayed) the same – a little worse - a lot worse)
Climate for Major Purchases (Q8)	This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods? (right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time)
Savings Index (Q10)	This Savings index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?” (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save) (Commented on but not included in the Index score)