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GfK NOP Consumer Confidence - January 2010

Index Score January 2009 - January 2010

New Year lifts Consumer Confidence?

• The GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index rose by two points this month to -17.
• Confidence in "general economy” over the last 12 months has risen by four points to -57.
• Confidence in general and confidence in their own personal situation in the next 12 months have both increased.
• The ‘major purchase Index’, has stayed the same at -16.

Nick Moon, MD of GfK NOP Social Research comments, "Alongside the news that the economy has just crept out of recession, the return of the CCB to upward movement after two months of falling back will be welcome news for the government. The measure remains clearly negative, but is 20 points higher than it was a year ago.”

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – January 2010

The overall index score this month rose by two points and is now at a score of -17, twenty points higher than this time last year. Three of the five measures this month increased with the remaining two measures staying the same as December 2009. The annual moving average also improved and is now, -24.

Measure	Jan 10	Dec 09	Jan 09
Overall index score	-17	-19	-37
Personal Financial situation over last 12 months	-14	-14	-18
Personal Financial situation over next 12 months	+4	+3	-14
General Economic situation over last 12 months	-57	-61	-80
General Economic situation over next 12 months	-2	-6	-48
Climate for major purchases	-16	-16	-27

Personal Financial Situation

The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year has remained the same this month with a score of -14; this is four points higher than this time last year. 

The forecast for personal finances over the next year increased by one point to a score of +4, this is eighteen points higher than January ‘09.

General Economic Situation

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last twelve months has risen by four points to –57; twenty three points higher than this time last year.  

An expectation for the general economic situation over the next twelve months has increased by four points to -2, this is fourty-six points higher than January ‘09.

Climate for Major Purchases

The major purchases measure has stayed the same this month at -16; eleven points higher than this time last year.

Savings Index

The ‘now is a good time to save’ Index, has increased six points to -2, which is sixteen-points higher than January ‘09.

About the GfK NOP Consumer Confidence survey

Any published material requires a reference to both GfK NOP and the European Commission e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK NOP on behalf of the European Commission’.

• The UK Consumer Confidence Survey from GfK NOP was conducted amongst a sample of 1993 individuals aged 16+ on behalf of the European Commission.
• Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
• Interviewing was carried out during 8–17 January 2010.
• The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
• Results for the Consumer Confidence Barometer are available on the last working day of each month at 00.01am. The next release is Friday 26 February 2010.
• This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 1996.

The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:

Personal Financial Situation (Q1/Q2)	This index is based on the following questions to consumers: How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’ Q2 ‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better –  a little better – stayed) the same –a little worse - a lot worse)
General Economic Situation (Q3/Q4)	This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better –  a little better – stayed) the same – a little worse - a lot worse)
Climate for Major Purchases (Q8)	This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods? (right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time)
Savings Index (Q10)	This Savings index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?” (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save) (Commented on but not included in the Index score)