Consumer Confidence Barometer - December 2010
December sees no change in Consumer Confidence
London, 21 December 2010 - The GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index has stayed the same this month at -21. December saw decreases in four measures; confidence in their personal financial situation over the last 12 months, confidence in their personal financial situation over the next 12 months, confidence in the "general economy” over the last 12 months and confidence in the "general economy” over the next 12 months. The "major purchase index” was the only measure increasing in December.
Index Score December 2009 - December 2010
Nick Moon, MD of GfK NOP Social Research, comments: "At the moment consumer confidence is being propped up by one thing – a belief that the run-up to Christmas and the VAT hike is a good time for big-ticket retail purchases. This element of the index has distorted the overall index to make it appear static when in fact it is teetering on the brink. Every other measure has fallen and without this one positive, consumer confidence would have fallen to its lowest level in over a year. Of course, the real test will come in January when festive spending ceases and the VAT increase comes in. Then we will finally see the full impact of how consumers are reacting to the first wave of austerity measures.”
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – December 2010
The overall index score this month has stayed the same at -21, two points lower than this time last year. Four of the five measures this month decreased, with the remaining measure increasing by ten points. The annual moving average stayed the same at -18.
|
Measure |
Dec 2010 | Nov 2010 | Dec 2009 |
|
Overall Index Score |
-21 | -21 | -19 |
|
Personal Financial situation over last 12 months |
-16 | -13 | -14 |
|
Personal Financial situation over next 12 months |
-8 | -7 | 3 |
|
General Economic situation over last 12 months |
-51 | -46 | -61 |
|
General Economic situation over next 12 months |
-23 | -22 | -6 |
|
Climate for major purchases |
-7 | -17 | -16 |
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last twelve months has decreased three points this month, at -16; this is two points lower than this time last year.
The forecast for personal finances over the next twelve months decreased one point to -8; this is eleven points lower than December ‘09.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last twelve months has decreased by five points to –51; ten points higher than this time last year.
An expectation for the general economic situation over the next twelve months has decreased by one point to -23, seventeen points lower than December ‘09.
Climate for Major Purchases
The major purchases measure has increased by ten points to -7; nine points higher than this time last year.
Savings Index
The ‘now is a good time to save’ Index, has decreased five points to -10, which is two points lower than December ‘09.
About the survey
- The UK Consumer Confidence Survey from GfK NOP was conducted amongst a sample of 2007 individuals aged 16+ on behalf of the European Commission.
- Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
- Interviewing was carried out during 3–12 December 2010.
- The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%
-
Results for the Consumer Confidence Barometer are available on the last working day of each month at 00.01am. The release date for January 2011 is Friday 28 January.
- Any published material requires a reference to both GfK NOP and the European Commission e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK NOP on behalf of the European Commission’.
- This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 1996.
The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:
Personal financial Situation (Q1/Q2) |
This index is based on the following questions to consumers: How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’ Q2 ‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same –a little worse - a lot worse) |
|
General Economic Situation (Q3/Q4) |
This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse - a lot worse) |
|
Climate for major purchases (Q8) |
This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods? (right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time) |
|
Savings Index (Q10)
|
This Savings index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?” (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save) (Commented on but not included in the Index score) |
